Amazon river level data

Strictly speaking, we're talking about the levels of the River Negro, and specifically the levels at the Port of Manaus.

2011 was fairly normal up to September, when there was an unprecedented fall of 30cm per day for 7 days, followed by what I call a "double dip" (as distinct to the repiquete* phenomenon). In the end, however, the river stabilised at around average levels, and started 2012 rising strongly. The only prediction one might make at this stage is that the river looks likely to peak at above average levels in 2012. 

We will update the data table periodically, and if you would like daily info. in between times, just email us.


2010 saw the lowest level recorded on the Rio Negro since records began in 1902 (13.63m a.m.s.l on 24th October). Prior to this 2005 was the last severe low-water year (14.75m on 25/10/05) and 1963 was the second lowest on record (13.64m, on 30/10/63)  Below is a comparative graph, showing the annual river level changes for the last years. Although data for 2010 only starts in September, we hope to add the missing months later. An Excel spreadsheet (273Kb) for the years 1903 - 2009 is available here (courtesy Mark Trigg).
 

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With two extreme lows within five years of eachother (2005 and 2010) and an all-time record high in 2009 of 29.77m, scientific tongues are a-wagging again with respect to climate models and climate change. Whereas a significant number of climatologists placed the 2005 low in the category of a-record-but-not-necessarily-statistically-signficant, more than a few of these are now looking with some alarm at the three closely-spaced extremes.

Although many would acknowledge that the multiplicity of models gives no clear steer on what´s likely to happen in the Amazon, a hot favourite at present predicts an accelerated or compressed swing from high-to-low/dry-to-wet extremes in the Amazon, culminating ultimately in the desertification of the region - or at least the savannah-isation - by the end of the 22nd century.

If Brazilian politicians were not so term-focused (sorry, let´s be right - it´s not just the Brazilians, is it?), this should setting off alarm bells throughout the land. For one thing, Brazil´s continued economic rise is at least in part predicated on its growing agriculture sector (which supplies huge quantities of bio-fuel as well as food), and the drying out of the Amazon would have fundamental implications for this. The implications for the wider world are of course all fuddled up in the myriad models, but the consistent conclusion is that it ain´t good, at all at all.

*To me, "repiquete" refers to the phenomenon where the river simply rises for a several days during the period when levels are falling overall - in other words, although the river may rise slightly, it subsequently continues its fall to levels below the point when the repiquete began. Happy to be corrected on this :)

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